Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

Abstract The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on projections without considering social changes. We project heat for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind differences there in vulnerability with different scenarios and scales, (2) how the use socio-economic influences risk assessments. a index seven indicators downscaled postal code area scale 2050. Three scenario sets tested: one five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; second three European SSPs (EUSSPs) data at sub-national (NUTS2); last EUSSPs but aggregated national scale. construct utilizing climatic hazard Representative Concentration (RCPs) exposure up 2100. In projections, each dataset shows decrease compared current values, between small. There evident both spatial patterns temporal trends when comparing constant dynamic vulnerability. Heat increases notably RCP4.5 RCP8.5, especially SSP1 SSP5 alleviates risks. show that have considerable impact heat-related emphasize should include combination long-term projections.